Message-ID: <9792760.1075863434090.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2001 11:50:51 -0700 (PDT)
From: j.kaminski@enron.com
To: a..roberts@enron.com
Subject: FW: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Aug 01, 2001
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X-From: Kaminski, Vince J </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=VKAMINS>
X-To: Roberts, Mike A. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Mrobert>
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Mike,

Please, take a look at it.

Vince

 -----Original Message-----
From: =09tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-tradersummary+=
40syncrasy+2Ecom+40ENRON@ENRON.com]=20
Sent:=09Wednesday, August 01, 2001 10:36 AM
To:=09vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject:=09Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Aug 01, 2001

=20
[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complementary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Aug 01, 2001 at =
08:00AM ET    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Aug 01, 2001 at 10:19AM E=
T  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here =
for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Wednesda=
y, August  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix   =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge=
)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 90 NC ERCOT(SP) 97 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 -2 MAAC(NE) 86 +1=
 MAIN(CTR) 91 +1 MAPP(HP) 83 +3 NPCC(NE) 85 NC SERC(SE) 88 NC SPP(SP) 96 +2=
 WSCC(NW) 78 -1 WSCC(RK) 83 +1 WSCC(SW) 84 -1     Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 84 84 80 74 81 84 95 83 =
Max 92 89 86 80 86 88 98 87 Min 78 80 72 65 77 78 91 79 Range 14 9 14 15 9 =
10 7 8 StD-P 3.3 2.6 3.7 4.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 =
   Day 1-5 Discussion:  *** Large ridge has shut the rain down for most of =
the country. Above normal though not excessive temperatures expected for mo=
st areas through the end of the week and beyond. Tropical wave in the Carib=
bean has become more organized over the past 24 hours.***  The ridge in the=
 Plains and building East looks quite strong to me. In an ordinary August, =
this should have more triple digit heat than we are seeing. The humidity an=
d associated heat indices are more than making up for this. Consistent rain=
 from earlier in the summer seem to be still having an impact on temperatur=
es. The only shower activity of note this morning is in the Upper Midwest w=
ith a weak cold front pressing down from Canada. This will reach the NE by =
the weekend, but cooling will be less dramatic than recent episodes. There =
will be some subtle sh! ifts with the Plains ridge, but not a huge effect o=
n sensible weather. A weak monsoonal flow continues in the West, especially=
 the SW. We also have a trough supplying cool air for the NW. This trough s=
hould weaken considerably late in the period with signs the Plains ridge ex=
pands into the West.   As for the tropics, I still see a potential for "Bar=
ry" to form late this week in the Southern Gulf. The wave from this in the =
Caribbean looks healthier today. Rains from this will spread into the South=
ern half of Florida today. The hurricane models have been run on this syste=
m and one of the intensity indicators predict a minimal hurriczane by Frida=
y. I caution that to be way overblown considering we dont have a storm as o=
f yet. The environment should be more favorable once the system passes by C=
uba tonight. Most of the models have a landfall of some type early next wee=
k in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico.  Tomorrow: Thursday, August  2, 200=
1   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECA=
R(CTR) 87 +1 ERCOT(SP) 95 NC FRCC(SE) 85 -2 MAAC(NE) 87 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +2 =
MAPP(HP) 84 +3 NPCC(NE) 87 +1 SERC(SE) 89 -1 SPP(SP) 95 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 -1 W=
SCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 87 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]  =
 Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 82 86 81 74 83 83 93 85 Max 89 94 88 80 8=
8 88 96 88 Min 74 79 70 66 77 78 89 81 Range 15 15 18 14 11 10 7 7 StD-P 3.=
6 3.6 4.7 4.7 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Friday=
, August  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)=
   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 -1 MAAC(NE) 86 +2 =
MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 87 +2 NPCC(NE) 84 +3 SERC(SE) 89 -2 SPP(SP) 95 +1 =
WSCC(NW) 82 +2 WSCC(RK) 88 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard Deviation [=
IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 88 77 76 83 82 94 85 M=
ax 86 97 85 82 88 88 97 87 Min 75 78 69 72 73 78 90 82 Range 11 19 16 10 15=
 10 7 5 StD-P 3.7 4.4 4.8 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4=
: Saturday, August  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility =
Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image t=
o enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 -1 FRCC(SE) 88 -1 MAAC(=
NE) 85 +2 MAIN(CTR) 85 -1 MAPP(HP) 88 NC NPCC(NE) 81 +2 SERC(SE) 87 -3 SPP(=
SP) 93 -1 WSCC(NW) 78 -1 WSCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 74 73 83 =
81 92 85 Max 86 91 83 78 86 87 96 87 Min 75 82 70 68 78 78 89 82 Range 11 9=
 13 10 8 9 7 5 StD-P 3.5 2.8 4.2 3.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 =
  Day 5: Sunday, August  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volati=
lity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on im=
age to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 94 -1 FRCC(SE) 90 NC =
MAAC(NE) 85 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 NC MAPP(HP) 87 NC NPCC(NE) 83 +3 SERC(SE) 87 -3=
 SPP(SP) 91 -1 WSCC(NW) 81 +2 WSCC(RK) 86 -1 WSCC(SW) 88 +3     Range Stand=
ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 75 7=
5 83 82 90 87 Max 86 89 84 83 86 88 94 89 Min 77 82 68 67 80 79 86 84 Range=
 9 7 16 16 6 9 8 5 StD-P 3.2 2.2 4.9 4.7 2.0 2.2 2.9 1.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 =
6 6   Day 6: Monday, August  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Vo=
latility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click o=
n image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 92 -1 FRCC(SE) 90=
 +1 MAAC(NE) 86 +1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 85 -1 NPCC(NE) 85 +4 SERC(SE) 8=
9 NC SPP(SP) 91 NC WSCC(NW) 84 +5 WSCC(RK) 87 +1 WSCC(SW) 88 +2     Range S=
tandard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 86 =
75 80 85 83 89 86 Max 85 89 85 86 87 89 93 90 Min 78 83 67 69 82 80 84 84 R=
ange 7 6 18 17 5 9 9 6 StD-P 1.8 1.2 5.5 4.6 2.1 2.5 4.3 2.2 Count 5 5 5 5 =
5 5 5 5    Day 6-10 discussion:  Any private weather sources who forecast e=
xclusively on the American MRF model in the 6-10 day period will be touting=
 another major trough and subsequent cooldown for the Great Lakes and North=
east. There is no other model support for this at this time and it is my op=
inion that those forecasts will bust in a big way. Now, having said that, t=
here is some support for the ridge to shift West temporarily into the Rocki=
es. That often results in a trough in the NE which is climatologically favo=
red. I just think the magnitude of the MRF is way overdone. I am maintainin=
g earlier forecasts of largely above normal temperatures East of the Rockie=
s until further evidence indicates otherwise. At the same time, the West ma=
y start to share in the warmth, though the set up still does not favor heat=
 getting to the coastal communities.  Day 7: Tuesday, August  7, 2001   Syn=
crasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) =
83 -3 ERCOT(SP) 93 NC FRCC(SE) 91 +1 MAAC(NE) 85 -2 MAIN(CTR) 85 -1 MAPP(HP=
) 83 -3 NPCC(NE) 83 +1 SERC(SE) 90 NC SPP(SP) 91 NC WSCC(NW) 86 +5 WSCC(RK)=
 86 +1 WSCC(SW) 88 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT=
 HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 86 74 82 84 83 88 86 Max 83 89 83 87 87 90 93=
 92 Min 76 84 68 71 81 80 82 81 Range 7 5 15 16 6 10 11 11 StD-P 1.9 1.9 4.=
9 4.3 1.7 2.7 5.1 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Wednesday, August  8, =
2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   =
ECAR(CTR) 82 +2 ERCOT(SP) 93 +14 FRCC(SE) 92 +11 MAAC(NE) 84 +6 MAIN(CTR) 8=
3 +1 MAPP(HP) 82 -4 NPCC(NE) 79 +6 SERC(SE) 90 +11 SPP(SP) 92 +8 WSCC(NW) 8=
5 +16 WSCC(RK) 86 +6 WSCC(SW) 88 +7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I=
MAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 86 74 80 82 83 89 87 Max 82 88 =
80 85 85 90 94 89 Min 76 85 70 69 79 81 84 81 Range 6 3 10 16 6 9 10 8 StD-=
P 2.7 1.2 3.0 4.5 1.6 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Thursday, =
August  9, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)  =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 69 -12 ERCOT(SP) 86 +6 FRCC(SE) 81 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 -11 =
MAIN(CTR) 74 -7 MAPP(HP) 80 -5 NPCC(NE) 64 -11 SERC(SE) 79 -2 SPP(SP) 87 +4=
 WSCC(NW) 76 +2 WSCC(RK) 84 +4 WSCC(SW) 87 +7     Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 78 85 69 76 81 81 90 87 =
Max 83 86 75 81 84 82 95 89 Min 74 85 65 71 79 79 87 85 Range 9 1 10 10 5 3=
 8 4 StD-P 4.2 0.5 4.4 2.4 2.1 1.2 3.4 1.2 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: =
Friday, August 10, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matr=
ix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to en=
large)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 70 -10 ERCOT(SP) 85 +3 FRCC(SE) 81 -1 MAAC(NE)=
 66 -12 MAIN(CTR) 75 -3 MAPP(HP) 83 -2 NPCC(NE) 61 -7 SERC(SE) 78 -3 SPP(SP=
) 87 +3 WSCC(NW) 70 +2 WSCC(RK) 82 +2 WSCC(SW) 85 +5     Range Standard Dev=
iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 73 78 66 63 72 77=
 82 76 Max 75 86 69 70 82 78 86 85 Min 70 70 63 55 59 75 79 65 Range 5 16 6=
 15 23 3 7 20 StD-P 2.3 7.8 3.3 6.8 10.4 1.3 3.5 9.2 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 =
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AGE]  =09
=09=09=09
